The Model Always Had Its Doubts About The Red Wave

In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time?